Universal Music Subscription Revenue Growth Slows Despite Price Gains
Jul 31, 2026Pricing lifted Universal Music’s subscription revenue, but an acquisition drove much of the reported increase. Market-share pressure and timing differences slowed growth in the underlying business.
Universal Music Group (UMG) reported a 16.6% increase in Recorded Music subscription revenue for the second quarter after adjusting for currency changes.
But that figure included Downtown Music Holdings, which UMG acquired earlier this year. Excluding Downtown, subscription revenue grew 6.7%. That was down from 7.9% in the first quarter and below analyst expectations of approximately 9.3%.
Downtown contributed €116 million in subscription revenue during the quarter.
Pricing Produced More Than Half of the Underlying Growth
Wholesale price increases contributed 3.5 percentage points to UMG’s 6.7% underlying subscription revenue growth.
These are increases in the rates streaming services pay UMG for its music, rather than prices UMG charges directly to consumers. Market-share pressure means UMG captured a smaller share of listening during part of the quarter.
Market-share pressure reduced growth by 1.5 percentage points. Minimum guarantees, accruals, audits and catch-up payments created another one-percentage-point drag. Management attributed the remaining difference from the first quarter to the timing of promotions and price increases.
UMG said its market share improved as the quarter progressed, supported by a stronger release schedule. Top sellers included Noah Kahan, BTS, Olivia Rodrigo, Drake and Olivia Dean.
Management Says Industry Subscriber Growth Remains Healthy
UMG licenses music to Spotify, Apple Music and other streaming services. It doesn’t report how many consumers subscribe to those platforms.
The slowdown was in the revenue UMG receives from paid streaming subscriptions. It wasn’t a reported decline in subscriber growth.
Chief Financial Officer Matt Ellis said UMG hadn’t seen a meaningful change in broader industry trends. Management continues to see healthy global subscriber growth, including at streaming services that have raised consumer prices.
UMG entered the third quarter with better market-share momentum than it had at the beginning of the second quarter. The company also expects more pricing benefits from recent changes at streaming partners, including Apple price increases and an updated agreement with Pandora.
Management is cautiously optimistic that subscription revenue growth will improve during the second half of the year.
Revenue Growth Outpaced Profit Growth
UMG’s total second-quarter revenue grew 13.3% after removing the effect of currency changes. Excluding Downtown, revenue grew 6.4%.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) reached €674 million, up 1.5% on the same currency-adjusted basis. Excluding Downtown, adjusted EBITDA was largely flat.
UMG’s adjusted EBITDA margin declined 2.2 percentage points to 20.5%. Management attributed the decline to the Downtown acquisition, revenue and repertoire mix, and a merchandising loss.
The company produced revenue growth, but that growth didn’t carry through to profit at the same rate. UMG shares fell about 25% in Friday trading.
The Insider Take
UMG’s immediate question is the quality of its subscription revenue growth.
Pricing produced more than half of the company’s underlying growth during the quarter, while market-share pressure worked in the opposite direction. Management expects more pricing benefits during the second half and entered the third quarter with better market-share momentum.
The next results will show whether that translates into stronger underlying growth. If it does, this quarter may prove to be a temporary slowdown shaped by release timing and other quarterly factors. If it doesn’t, UMG may be relying too heavily on price increases to compensate for weaker competitive performance.
That’s the issue subscription operators should carry into their own reporting. Price increases can strengthen revenue even while other parts of the business lose momentum. Leaders need to see both before deciding whether growth is getting stronger or becoming more dependent on pricing.
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