Study: More Trial Engagement Doesn't Always Mean Better Retention
Sep 25, 2026A study following 2,434 discounted-trial customers found predicted retention improved from low to moderate habit levels, then fell at the highest levels.
If you run trials, heavy use usually looks like success. A customer keeps coming back and spending time with the product. You’d expect that person to be more likely to stay when the regular price kicks in.
New research suggests the relationship may have a limit.
A study published September 21 in the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science looked at how habits formed during free and discounted trials relate to conversion and retention.
The researchers conducted four studies with users of a regional European newspaper. The largest followed 2,434 customers who signed up for six weeks of premium access for €0.99. Unless they canceled, the subscription moved to the regular price of €12.99 per month.
At the end of the trial, 46.8% remained and moved to full price. One month later, 36.5% of the original trial group was still subscribed. Those customers had paid at least two full-price cycles. At 32 weeks, 21.7% remained.
When More Trial Engagement Stopped Looking Better
The researchers used customer activity during the discounted trial to build a measure of habit strength based on usage intensity and how regularly people returned.
At first, stronger habits were associated with better retention. Then the pattern changed. The researchers’ model showed predicted retention rising from very low to moderate habit levels, then declining among customers at relatively high habit levels. They found the same pattern when looking shortly after the trial and again at 32 weeks.
For operators, that raises a useful question about trial metrics. A highly active customer may look like a strong retention prospect while the introductory price is still in place. Their behavior after the price changes can tell a different story.
Could Trial Hopping Be Part of It?
The researchers point to trial hopping as one possible explanation. Some customers may become very active users of premium products while an introductory offer is available, then leave when the regular price begins. They may return to free access or look for another discounted offer elsewhere.
The study did not test or prove that explanation. The researchers specifically call trial hopping a possible interpretation that needs more research. So we don’t know why retention weakened among customers with the strongest measured habits. We only know that the relationship appeared in the data.
What This Study Doesn't Tell Us
The retention data came from one regional European newspaper. Its 46.8%, 36.5% and 21.7% retention figures shouldn’t be treated as benchmarks for other subscription businesses. The researchers also did not have demographic or other individual-level controls for the 2,434 customers in the retention study. Other differences among those customers could have contributed to the pattern.
The discounted trial automatically converted to a full-price subscription unless the customer canceled. To reduce the chance of counting people who simply forgot to cancel, the researchers used a stricter primary retention measure. Customers had to remain subscribed for more than a month after the trial, meaning they had paid at least two full-price cycles.
One of the study’s authors, Walter Hauser, was head of the reader market at the participating newspaper while the research was being conducted. The relationship is disclosed in the paper.
Insider Take
Trial engagement is useful. The danger is stopping there. A customer who visits frequently and spends a lot of time with the product may look terrific on a trial dashboard. What operators really need to know is whether that behavior continues to translate into value once the customer starts paying the regular price.
This study gives teams a reason to connect trial activity with what happens several billing cycles later.
High activity may be a good signal. This research suggests it shouldn’t be treated as proof of future retention.
Related Member Resources
A trial can produce plenty of activity and still fall short if those customers do not stay long enough at full price. These resources help operators look beyond initial conversion and connect acquisition offers to retention and payback over time.
- Subscriber Acquisition Model: Forecast Costs, Growth, and Payback
This model helps operators connect acquisition spending with the revenue subscribers produce over time. For a discounted trial, that means looking past the initial conversion rate to ask whether customers stay long enough at full price for the offer to make economic sense.
- Subscription Retention Cohorts: How to Read Patterns Before Revenue Drops
Cohort analysis lets teams follow groups of subscribers beyond signup and compare how retention develops over time. It is particularly useful here because the study shows why trial conversion alone can miss what happens after customers begin paying the regular price.
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